Last updated: November 6, 2026
Critical minerals, by the numbers
Market size, prices, demand growth, supply concentration, and government funding for lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, and rare earths, from published sources.
Two different kinds of number sit behind this name, and they must not be mixed. The first kind measures the market: demand growth, prices, and market value, counted by the International Energy Agency and the price reporters each month. The second kind measures the politics of supply: who mines, who refines, and how much public money is now being committed to change the answer. The first kind tells a reader how big the business is. The second tells a reader who controls it.
What the latest numbers show is a market pulling in two directions at once: demand keeps rising — lithium demand grew about 30% in 2023 and by nearly 30% again in 2024 — while prices fell hard from their peaks and investment in new supply stalled. Governments filled part of the gap: public-finance commitments in advanced economies reached about $65 billion in 2025, more than four times the 2023 level, even as overall critical-minerals investment fell 9%.
The figures
| Figure | Value | Trend vs prior period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Combined market value, key energy transition minerals | About $325 billion (copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, rare earths) | ▲ Up Prior: market contracted 10% in 2023 on falling prices; projected to reach $770 billion by 2040 in the IEA Net Zero Scenario | IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024 |
| Lithium demand growth, 2023 | Up about 30% | ▲ Up Prior: about 10% annual growth in the 2010s; nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths grew 8–15% in 2023 | IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024 |
| Lithium demand growth, 2024 | Up nearly 30% | ▲ Up Prior: up about 30% in 2023; nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths grew 6–8% in 2024 | IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 |
| Lithium spot price, 2023 | Down 75% | ▼ Down Prior: prices tripled in the two years from January 2020; cobalt, nickel, and graphite fell 30–45% in 2023 | IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024 |
| Battery-grade lithium carbonate, China | 93,500 yuan per tonne (SMM average, November 2, 2026) | ▼ Down Prior: InfoLink assessment 97,000 yuan per tonne on October 28, 2026; Citigroup cut its two-year forecast to $12,000 per tonne on November 2, 2026 | Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), November 2, 2026 |
| LME nickel, official cash price | $15,465 per tonne (November 4, 2026) | ▲ Up Prior: $15,200 per tonne on November 3, 2026; 3-month nickel $15,675 per tonne on November 4, 2026 | LME official prices, as reported by FT Mercati, November 4, 2026 |
| Cobalt price | About $33,525 per tonne (November 2026) | ▼ Down Prior: about 40% below its 12-month high; down about 31% over the prior year | Cobalt exchange price, November 6, 2026 |
| U.S. critical minerals list | 60 minerals (final 2025 list) | ▲ Up Prior: 50 minerals on the 2022 list; 10 new in 2025; 15 rare earth elements included | U.S. Geological Survey, 2025 List of Critical Minerals (November 7, 2025) |
| China's share, magnet rare earth refining | About 91% of global separation and refining production, 2024 | ▼ Down (projected) Prior: about 60% of mining and about 94% of sintered magnet production in 2024; refining share seen falling to about 85% in 2025 and roughly 70% by 2035 | IEA, Rare Earth Elements 2025/2026, as summarized by RareMetalBlog |
| Critical-minerals investment growth | Up 5% in 2024; down 9% in 2025 | ▼ Down Prior: up 14% in 2023; real growth just 2% in 2024 after cost inflation; exploration spending down more than 10% in 2025 | IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025; IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 via Industrial Info Resources |
| Public-finance commitments, advanced economies | About $65 billion in 2025 | ▲ Up Prior: about $15 billion in 2023 — more than a fourfold rise; a wide gap remains between commitments and actual outlays | IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, as reported by Industrial Info Resources |
| U.S. DOE loan, Thacker Pass lithium project | $2.26 billion closed October 2024 ($1.97 billion principal) | ● Baseline First draw $435 million in October 2025; Phase 1 target 40,000 tonnes per annum of battery-grade lithium carbonate | Lithium Americas, October 2024 |
| U.S. Department of Defense investment, MP Materials | $400 million preferred equity, July 2025, plus $150 million loan | ● Baseline Ten-year price floor of $110 per kilogram for NdPr oxide; roughly a 15% diluted stake | MP Materials / U.S. Department of Defense, July 2025 |
| Projected supply shortfall, 2035 (STEPS) | Copper about 30%; lithium about 40% | ● Forecast Expected mined supply from announced projects versus projected demand; other key minerals are broadly on track if projects proceed on schedule | IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 |
| Mining capital investment required to 2040 (STEPS) | About $500 billion | ● Forecast About $600 billion in the Announced Pledges Scenario; excludes sustained capital expenditure | IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 |
How to read these numbers
Included: IEA market value, demand, price, investment, and supply-balance figures for 2023–2025; the USGS final 2025 critical minerals list; IEA rare earth supply-chain shares for 2024; SMM and LME price readings from November 2026; and the U.S. Department of Energy and Department of Defense financing packages for Thacker Pass and MP Materials. Excluded: price forecasts presented as fact (Citigroup's $12,000 per tonne is a forecast, labeled as such); private market-research estimates of total market size that conflict with the IEA's published figure; and any blending of mining, refining, and magnet-production shares, which describe different stages of the chain.
Price readings are point-in-time assessments from the sources linked above and move daily; the “Last updated” stamp records when this page last verified them. Forecasts and planning targets are labeled as forecasts and targets, not actuals.
Disclaimer: Figures on this page are aggregated public estimates assembled for information only. They are not investment advice, legal advice, or a professional opinion on any specific case, claim, project, or purchase. Original reporting and the underlying surveys remain the work of the sources linked above; this page summarizes their published figures with attribution and adds no proprietary dataset. Aggregated public estimates, not investment or professional advice.
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Changelog
- November 6, 2026: Initial edition — IEA market value, demand, price, and investment figures; USGS 2025 list; rare earth supply-chain shares; November 2026 lithium, nickel, and cobalt prices; DOE and Department of Defense financing packages established.